# A problem with the crate pull algorithm

I’ve been doing an experiment and notating a real problem with the way my crate pulls have been going. My latest was today when I did the Shivs skin crate. I did receive the skin which I am lucky for but another issue exists. As I did my pulls I got a lot, and I mean a lot of energy. But as it’s 21+% I can semi understand. But it should be split with an equal amount of cash. Which I only pulled once.

Unfortunately this wasn’t my only problem. I pulled Shank frags 8 times today. No keel. Which again should have been at least a couple. Even in RNG this is highly unlikely with probabilities and percentages where they are.

Before today I was taking note again that the pull rates are awkward. If someone in my alliance pulls a skin they end up pulling the same skin 2-3 more times before the event is over. From a couple of alliance members, specifically, if you pull Artemis from the gilded crate you pull her a few more times. Another member pulled Yeager a few times. I personally get Salvatore 2 out of 3 gilded crate pulls.

My problem with the algorithm is that, as it seems through my experimentation and data gathering from others, that once you get a crate pull you keep getting the same pull. Which in probability is IMPOSSIBLE.

The stats of the crates is wrong. The possibility of pulling the most rare and continuing is not possible. How is it that RNG deals the same hand over and over? Simply it isn’t RNG.

I’d like others that read this post to tell me if they are seeing what I am seeing or is this a limited coincidental experience and I am wrong here.

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This is my generally experience too

There’s no such thing as “impossible” when it comes to probability. There’s probable, and improbable. You can roll the dice 20 times and get a 1 each time. Improbable, but possible!

We often get players using anecdotal evidence to try and prove that our Crate logic is flawed, but I promise you, the laws of probability remain constant. We don’t “cook” the odds past the first Crate where you’re guaranteed Butter, as he’s part of the tutorial. Everything else is pure probability. We’ve seen people pull Prophet from their first Hero Crate, then get a duplicate of him on their 2nd!

Exactly the problem, the duplicate. It happens too often to be coincidental. When the gilded crate has 61 characters in it, yet everyone I have talked to pulls the same character, multiple times no matter what the probability is, that is IMPOSSIBLE.

Let’s lean into your continued dice analogy, as no one has challenged you on this theoretical scenario and you have used it multiple times. Instead of your nice, even 20 sided die, we are talking a 61 sided die, with sides that are smaller and others that are 3x the size of others. That just so happen to continuously land on the same side for the same person over and over (which happen to be a different side for different people) even if it is smaller, you are incorrect to say it should occur this often.

Chalk it up to conspiracy theory but you are talking to someone that is way more advanced in math and experimentation than most. I take a much more scientific approach to things before I just blurt something like this out as I always give benefit of the doubt.

I’ve been watching this for a few months now. This is not something I am just now saying “you know what today was weird.” You need to look at your random coding as it is duplicating.

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I love when people post these topics lol. Quantum physics of probability. Nothing is wrong here

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Nothing is impossible, only highly improbable.

Unless its rigged.

I don’t think that’s the case here, but I have gotten some awkward crate pulls. Like when I used all my gold (4k+ ) and didn’t get shivs at all despite her having the highest chance. Also in campaign quick wins supposedly the gear items with a lower chance aren’t displayed in rewards as they are very unlikely, but I’ve gotten them more than the gear item that is supposedly a higher chance.

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A lot of this topic delves into theoreticals. If the same crate is pulled multiple times, the odds/likelihood of that occurring go way down. As the odds get closer and closer to 0, the suspicion of a bug or “rigged” mechanics go up. I don’t consider this to be an irrational conclusion, because odds cut both ways; they could be genuinely reflective of pure luck, and they can also show that there is a flaw in the system. Again, if there is a 0.05% chance of something occurring, it is very rare, and shouldn’t be outright dismissed by either party, whether player or developer.

Again, this is a matter of theoreticals, but cases like these don’t set players at ease, naturally. Maybe it’s something to check on. However, I would err on the side of it being a stroke of unfortunate luck.

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@Gale

“Someone who is so advanced at maths compared to ‘most’ can’t seem to understand the basics of probability and improbability nor that anecdotal evidence is subject to gamblers fallacy”

If this was the case this is the luckiest community on the planet and we all need to take a trip to vegas. While we should all be on the same roulette wheel, each playing different numbers but everyone will win in an insanely short period of time.

Anecdotes were used to make things more relatable to understand. Evidence was multiple people getting the same results. You combined two things I said that were separated in my post. Not anecdotal evidence but an explanation of why it doesn’t work out correctly in “layman’s terms”. Nice try though.

Your problem is clearly an issue with a failure to understand the basic fundamentals of probability.

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To expand on why your understanding of randomness is likely so misunderstood; let’s look at this example a little deeper.

If we assume a 61-sided die and roll it 10 times, there is a 14.8% 14.04% chance that two consecutive rolls are identical. That’s just the odds of having the same outcome back-to-back in a run of 10.

(edited to fix a quick calculation error)

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Dang this topic came out of nowhere. You gotta let the devs chill. They are running a great game right now!

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Aren’t you supposed to be a “moderator”?

Doesn’t seem right that you can attack someone but everyone else posts like that are flagged and hid. Unless kissing the devs ass gives you special privileges that we don’t know about.

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He’s a player that happens to be a mod for the community-run Discord server. It has zero bearing on the forum for the game.

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I’m not a mod no, if my post get’s flagged then it gets flagged but it doesn’t take away from the fact the OP thinks I am out to get them when I tried to explain they aren’t some mathematic wizard when they can’t even understand that probability and impossible don’t go together with RNG

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I couldn’t agree more with you. I also have been watching it for months. The first heroes are rigged on every account I have. The first 3x 10 sets of hero crystals on any acct are the same with a random good hero thrown in. The tiered crates are rigged too. I decided it all really doesn’t matter because that’s their way of making money. Which ever new developer is using the forums account to reply will just copy paste the same probability scenario and ithat’s that.

Post your algorithm devs.if it’s random we’ll see.

Personally ive rolled that crate like a mad man. Spent gold and cleared 20k in tokens. Well thats when i stopped counting. Lol i think there should be a loyalty reward for these types of things. 25 crate opened get the skin. Just a suggestion. Heros i get but a skin should not be this much trouble for a collector to get them. Especially considering you have tottaly dropped the ball on skin releases.

I m NOT advanced in math. Throw me some complicated mathematical steps n numbers that I don’t understand. I probably be convinced in no time.

So…a friend of mine has gotten Artemis from the gilded crate 4x. And he merely gets tokens from the solo pvp blitz. He got Artemis the first time he opened it and 3 more times after that. He had some Artemis frags before he got her from the gilded crate so with the gilded crates, his Artemis is now 10 stars. Considering how we have only had a few of these solo pvp blitz, it is interesting to see such an occurrence. Maybe the OP is right and the algorithm should be reviewed.

I don’t think there’s really a problem with the crate itself… this is just how probability works. A solution for the duplicates could maybe be to just program it so you have lower chances for heroes u already have, and lower the chances for every duplicate, while proportionally changing the others, and then reset all the chances when you get a new character. For people who own every character, maybe some sort of algorithm to boost the chances for the heroes they’re buying the most frags of?

IK this is probably a considerable endeavor, but it is an idea for a new system that I believe would improve the game…